Calvin's Views

Google ended the week at $187.90. In the short-term, my assessment of Google's value was clearly way off! I wish I'd gotten some IPO shares now. Not a bad return!!

What's even more interesting is Google's value relative to the other "Internet" stocks. It's currently trading at 93x EV/EBITDA vs. 72x for YHOO. There's no way that can continue.

So, after extensive research and weighing all the options, I bought a Sirius Satellite Radio receiver for my Dad for Christmas. I hope he likes it. I also purchased a car mounting kit and a home mounting kit. This will enable him to take the receiver from the car to the house and vice versa. I view these as essential accesories. I almost wasn't able to find a receiver for sale. I finally found a nice one at Circuit City in the mall. All of the Best Buys and other Circuit City stores were sold out of the Sportster and Audiovox receiver models. Apparently these manufacturers underestimated the demand. All retailers had plenty of the XM receivers. I'm not sure what to make of this. It's hard to tell if the XM folks did a better job of estimating the demand or if the demand for Sirius is that much stronger. I guess we'll see when both release their new subscriber numbers.

Even with outstanding Christmas sales, I can't see how Sirius can be valued at over $10bn. That's an awfully high valuation for a company that only has sales of $47mm and continues to lose money.

Do you have a view?

It's frustrating that personal technology isn't where it should be yet. Here's a list of simple things that I think would be popular and aren't yet available or common:

1) Voice command for my home. Lights, TV, Stereo, etc. I should be able to say, "Stereo, play Sting, Roxanne" and have it turn on and start playing.

2) Internet control of my cable DVR (does Tivo offer this?) Frequently I am online and think of a show I'd like to record. Why can't I control my DVR while online?

3) Ability to seamlessly play my music collection on my computer, stereo, car, and MP3 player.

I guess what I'm hoping for one day is to have complete integration between my computer, stereo, TV, house, and car. Why is it taking so long and who is leading the charge?

Do you have a view?

Went to Best Buy today. They are selling craploads of satellite radios. In fact, they were completely sold out of the Sirius radios. For now, they certainly seem to have the edge over XM. So, the big question then is why does XM have 3X the number of subscribers?

Thinking of getting one for my dad and really torn about which one to get. ACC Sports is a big attraction for XM. Basically, NPR vs. ACC Sports. The consumer really loses in this proprietary game.

Best Buy Salesman quote: “Once I tell people they can only get NPR on Sirius, it’s all over.”

Points of interest:

Sirius:
Over 800k subscribers
Now part of QQQQ ETF
$12.99/month or $499 lifetime
$70 device (after $30 rebate)
Unlimited free online usage
Daimler Chrysler, BMW, and Ford partnerships
Exclusive content:
NPR
Howard Stern
NBA
NFL
NHL
English Premier League Soccer
Spotty college b-ball coverage
All Elvis channel
Eminem

XMSR:
Over 2.5mm subscribers
Already part of QQQQ ETF
$9.99/month or 5 years for $499 (no lifetime plan)
$80 device (after $10 rebate)
Online usage for $3.99/month
GM partnership
Exclusive content:
MSNBC
MLB
ACC Sports
PAC-10 Sports
Big Ten Sports
Nascar
MTV
VH1
Snoop Dogg

Do you have a view?